북미회담 결과에 대한 외신 보도

2019.03.02 15:03

타락씨 조회 수:1875

재미있는 것은, 협상 결렬의 가장 큰 피해자로 정작 회담 당사국도 아닌 남한의 대통령이 거론되고 있다는 사실.

한반도 평화 체제, 혹은 비핵화에 있어서 남한의 역할은 심각하게 제한되어 있거나 축소되고 있는데 반해,
부담해야 할 비용은 지속적으로 증가하고 있다는 사실을 직시할 필요가 있음.

vox가 지적하듯, 남한은 대북 제재를 좌우하지 못함.
guardian이 지적하듯, 대북 제재 완화 없는 남북 경협은 불가능.
cnbc와 reuter가 인용한 것처럼, 남북 경협을 비롯한 대북관계는 문재인 정부의 사활이 걸린 문제라 할 수 있음.

마지막으로 ,  reuter가 인용한 외교소식통의 촌평처럼..
남한 정부는 현 상황에 몸이 달아있을 뿐 아니라, 이를 감출 생각조차 없기 때문에..
협상의 최종 결과가 어떻게 되건 남한에 이익이 될 것이라 기대하기는 어렵지 않을까 예상함.

물론 그분들이 보시기에는 한반도가 전쟁위기에서 벗어나 비가역적인 평화의 시대로 접어든 것은 다 불세출의
'네고시에이터'라는 그분 덕택이겠으나, 똑같은 주장을 트럼프가 하고 있다는 사실을 상기하셨으면 싶고..

'잘 되면 술이 석잔, 못 되면 뺨이 석대'..라는 반도 민족의 아름다운 전통에 따라 뺨 맞을 마음의 준비도
하고 계시는 편이 '일본을 공격한다' 카드를 만지작거리는 것보다 보기에 나을 듯. 

---
vox
https://www.vox.com/world/2019/2/28/18245123/trump-north-korea-summit-vietnam-expert-david-kim

[The biggest loser here is [South Korean President] Moon Jae-in. President Moon will be the one who’s going to have to put this deal back together and do some shuttle diplomacy by either working with Kim to get him to Seoul, working on stronger cosmetic inter-Korean agreements — he can’t lift sanctions obviously, so he has to work on cultural cooperation and doing these symbolic gestures.]
- David Kim, a former State Department official specializing in East Asia and nonproliferation who’s currently at the Stimson Center, a think tank in Washington, DC. 

---
guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/feb/28/trump-kim-summit-leaders-to-meet-for-day-two-of-talks-in-vietnam-live

[As many analysts are pointing out, one of the biggest losers in this scenario is South Korean President Moon Jae-in who now can not progress his relationship with North Korea in any substantial way, and means economic engagement between the two countries is off the table for now]

---
cnbc
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/trump-kim-vietnam-summit-breakdown-impact-on-south-korea-moon-jae-in.html

[For Seoul, Thursday's developments dimmed prospects of re-starting inter-Korean projects that have been stalled by sanctions, Evans wrote in a Thursday note. Political support for Moon could also fall further, she added.

"Importantly, Moon's support rating has fallen steadily ... Without progress on North Korea, Moon's domestic agenda becomes his only metric of success for voters, who have already criticised his administration for failing to deliver on economic metrics such as unemployment,"]
- Alison Evans, deputy head of Asia Pacific country risk at consultancy IHS Markit

---
reuter
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-moon-idUSKCN1QI405

[Those projects, stymied by sanctions on North Korea, are key to a Moon economic initiative that he sees as a driver for South Korea’s moribund economy, which is suffering its worst unemployment in a decade.

“For the Moon administration, the summit was make-or-break,” said Lee Chung-min, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Asia Programme.

“Moon wants to distract South Korean citizens from the sluggish economy and growing unemployment by taking credit for inter-Korean peace and boosting his party’s chances in next year’s parliamentary election.”]

[But as the dust settles on the summit, there are questions as to whether the enthusiasm of Moon and his top aides, including national security adviser Chung Eui-yong, got the better of them.

Some analysts say they might have over-sold to Trump the willingness of Kim to abandon the weapons that North Korea sees as the guarantee of its survival.

Days before the Hanoi summit, Moon offered to “ease the burden” on the United States, saying South Korea could provide concessions to the North through inter-Korean economic initiatives.

“It may not be the wisest thing to openly show how desperate you are, especially when you know their gap is still wide,” a diplomatic source in Seoul said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.]
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